There is a slight glimmer of hope that we are gradually pulling out of the Great Recession.  According to an elite panel of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, home prices across the US saw their lowest point in the first part of the year and have been gradually trending upward.

The panel predicts modest gains of approximately 1.2% over 2011, but warns that the record unemployment will continue to be a factor in triggering defaults.  According to the panel, getting more people back to work will be key to slowing foreclosures and the recovery of the housing market.

Single family home values are fairing better in San Diego County where we saw price increases above the national average, but values for condo sales dropped.  Comparing home sales in August of 2009 to sales in August 2010, we saw a 5.5% increase in average sale price for single family homes and a -2.2% decline in sale price for condos during the same period.  The median home price in August 2010 was $375,000 for a single family home and $220,000 for a condo.

Some areas of the county that had been hit hard by foreclosures after the boom period, such as newer areas of Chula Vista, saw an increase by as much at 15.9%, while more pricey areas such as La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe saw a decline in prices anywhere from -5.0% to -26.5%.  Please contact me if you’d like to know the specifics for your area.

The national numbers were presented in the NABE October 2010 Outlook.  The panel was comprised of 46 professional analysts from such firms as Goldman Sachs, Fannie Mae, Moody’s Analytics and the PMI Group.  The local sales statistics are courtesy of Fidelity National Title Company.

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