Real Estate Values


It’s not your imagination: The housing market recovery is on a roll, upwards! A recent survey of over 100 real estate and economic experts predicts that by the end of 2013, home values will have increased nationwide by an average of 6.7% over a year ago. This is significantly more than the 5.4% bump anticipated in an earlier study.

The Home Price Expectations Survey was conducted by Pulsenomics, LLC on behalf of Zillow. Based on market expectations, the panel predicts that home prices will continue to rise until 2017, coming very close to the record highs of May 2007. The rate of increase however will not be as dramatic as 2013, with appreciation anticipated to slow to 4.4% in 2014 and down to 3.4% in 2017. This represents a cumulative increase of 23.7% through 2017, at which point appreciation is expected to be more in line with historic norms.

Interestingly, most panel members did not feel that rising interest rates would derail the recovery, unless interest rates rise above 6.0%. According to Zillow Senior Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell, “As long as interest rates don’t rise too far and too fast, most markets should be able to absorb these changing dynamics and remain healthy.” It is anticipated that as interest rates rise, investors will pull out of some markets, increasing inventory and helping to stabilize the market.

What does this mean for you? If you are looking to buy, now is the time as prices will continue to rise. Looking to sell? You are more likely to get top dollar between now and the end of the year as inventory, especially here in San Diego County is very limited. As appreciation slows and more inventory hits the market it is less likely that the multiple offer scenarios that we are currently experiencing will continue.

Questions about the value of your home? Interested in an investment property? Just give me a call and I’ll be happy to answer all your questions.

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La Mesa, CA Real Estate Market Update – November 2011

 

                                                 

 

 

 

La Mesa,CA is a great place to call home!  From the quaint downtown filled with restaurants and antique shops, to the views from Mt.Helix, there are many wonderful neighborhoods with their own distinctive vibe.  But like most everywhere throughout the county, real estate values continue to slip, as noted in this real estate market update.

La Mesa, CA Single Family Home Sales – November 2011

Total number of sales                       51

            Short sales                                 9

            REO sales                                   8

Average price                                     $381,197

Average days on market                 71

Average price 2010                          $417,252

Average price YTD 2011                 $387,727

Prices for single family homes have not showed a significant decline throughout the year, which may be a sign that the market is starting to level out.

La Mesa, CA Attached Home Sales – November 2011

Total number of sales                    14

            Short sales                             3

            REO sales                                2

Average price                                  $190,807

Average days on market              51

Average price 2010                        $190,580

Average price YTD 2011               $167,587

The average price for November for attached homes is surprisingly high when compared to the preceding months.  As we enter 2012 we will have to see if this is a trend, or merely a month with more sales of higher priced units.

To learn more about the La Mesa, CA real estate market, just give me a call!  I’ve lived in the area for over 20 years and would love to show you why this is such a great place to call home.

Overall, August was a good month and sales of detached and attached homes were up compared to August of 2010.  However, it’s the year-to-date numbers that tell the real story.

Compared to 2010, our year-to-date volume is down by 8.9%  for condos and 1.9%  for detached homes, and values have also slipped.  The median price for an attached home in August was $208,000 which is down significantly from a year ago when it was $220,500.  Detached homes have done slightly better, but the median price of $370,000 is nearly 4% down from $385,000 last year.

Some areas of course have fared better than others:

The year-to-date median price for a detached home in Cardiff  by The Sea is $892,500, up from $825,000 a year ago. Carmel Valley is also doing well with a median price of $915,500 up from $905,000.  And there has been little change in either Del Mar or La Jolla over the last year…both are holding steady at a bit over $1.3 million.

For most of the rest of the county however, home values have dropped.  We especially see this in areas that were new in 2005-2006.  Many of the homes purchased at the top of the market have now become foreclosures or short sales which tend to pull down the overall values in any neighborhood.

If you have questions about a specific area, just give me a call. 

 

 

With short sales accounting for over 17% of all sales in July, and thousands of homeowners upside down on their mortgages, the California Association of Realtors believes that short sales will be a part of the real estate market place for years to come.  Economic growth just isn’t happening quickly enough to keep pace with the number of homeowners who are sinking closer to foreclosure with each passing month.  For many, opting to sell their home in a short sale is the best option because of the less damaging impact on their credit.  But agreeing to list a short sale can be the start of an uphill battle for the Realtors involved. 

One of the biggest issues facing short sale transactions is the time involved for even a preliminary review of the offer and submitted documentation.  This step alone can often take one to three months before the lender even assigns a negotiator to the file.  Another annoying reality is lost or misplaced documentation.  With many lenders one feels that there must be a trash can on the other end of the fax machine as requests for the same documentation are made over and over.  All of this takes time…and the buyer is often out there still looking for something they can buy more quickly, with less hassle.

The California Association of Realtors has recently sent urgent requests to the heads of all the major lenders, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo with recommendations about how the whole process can be streamlined.  A few of the items requested include:

  • Realistic timelines
  • A thorough explanation for short sales that are denied
  • Up front disclosure about who really owns the loan and can make a decision
  • Pre-approval of the short sale and price prior to marketing the property
  • Increased pay-off to the junior lien holder

As a dues paying member of  C.A.R. and a Realtor in the short sale trenches I’d be thrilled to see even one or two of these recommendations become part of lender procedure.  In the meantime, I’ll just be the one on the phone politely nudging them along, every step of the way.

 

 

Anyone who knows me would probably say that I’m a fairly optimistic person, but lately it seems as though the real estate market is developing into a vicious cycle with no way to correct itself.   In a report released on Monday, the researchers at Capital Economics said that we could expect nationwide home prices to fall an additional 3% this year, bringing the year’s total decline to about 5%.  So, despite the fact that some markets inSan DiegoCountyhave seen modest gains in home prices over last year, overall, the picture is less than rosy.

So what are the driving forces behind this downward spiral?  Well, the obvious answer is that there are many complicated factors at play, but the cycle we’re seeing is really pretty simple:   Housing prices are falling due to low demand and too much inventory. Normally after a recession, home sales start to pick-up, but that’s not what we’re seeing.  Instead, demand is being strangled by increasingly stringent lending requirements which restrict buying power.  So instead of more buyers coming into the market to take advantage of the low interest rates, we’re seeing fewer that are able to qualify because of high credit score and/or high down payment requirements.   Even existing homeowners looking to sell and buy up or down are caught in a stalemate as most have limited or no equity to leverage against a new property. 

The cycle picks up momentum every time prices drop.  Lower prices, mean less equity for existing homeowners and for those with a mortgage, an increasing number of borrowers are choosing strategic default.  These voluntary defaults are adding to the foreclosure inventory already on the market and the estimated 5 million foreclosed homes lurking in the shadows.  And so the cycle continues; more foreclosures create a bloated inventory.  With an insufficient number of buyers able to buy, sales drop and prices fall, which breeds more foreclosures, and on, and on.

As I’ve noted before, I’m no economist and certainly don’t have all the answers, but there are clearly two actions that could put the brakes on falling prices and encourage increased sales:

  1. Congress should oppose the Quality Residential Mortgage (QRM) requirements being proposed.   The QRM would require an unnecessarily high down payment of 20% and impose a very stringent debt-to-income ratio for conventional loans.  The result would be that more borrowers would seek FHA loans, which in turn would likely raise qualification standards and insurance requirements.  The bottom line result will be fewer qualified buyers and fewer sales.
  2. Banks need to address the issue of negative equity by offering programs that provide principal reductions.  When a borrower feels that he/she is paying on lost equity that they will never recoup they are more likely to choose to default, adding to the inventory glut.

Do you have any ideas about breaking the cycle of falling prices?  I’d love to hear from you!

 

Everyday I wake up, turn on my computer and read all the real estate news.  But pretty soon I’m scratching my head, wondering whether or not anyone really has a clue about what’s going on.  One story says values have double-dipped at a new low, another says they’re on the rise.  Some “experts” insist that reducing unemployment will drive the real estate recovery, while others have the statistics to “prove” that a stronger real estate market will be what heals the national economy.  No wonder the real estate market is stagnant – everyone is paralyzed by uncertainty!

As noted previously, I have no crystal ball.  Nor do I have a doctorate in economics.  However, I do know one thing that will help heal both the real estate market and the overall economy:   Would-be buyers and defaulting owners – take action now!  

If you are thinking about buying a property, quit thinking and start doing!  This is a fabulous buyer’s market and both prices and interest rates are at incredible lows.  If you’re worried that you won’t get the absolute lowest price because values might continue to drop, you’re probably wrong.  Most experts believe that we’ll see some slight ups and downs in value over the next 2 years, but it will be more of a bumpy road versus a roller coaster dive.   If you wait another year to buy, you’ll lose 12 months of mortgage interest deduction, and the enjoyment of owning your own home or investment property.

On the other hand, if you’re unable to continue to make your mortgage payments it’s definitely time to take action.  You probably won’t win the lottery, so call your bank and try to get a loan modification.  If that doesn’t work, consider a short sale.  Avoiding a foreclosure through short sale is generally not only better for the seller, but it will help the real estate market and economy.  Banks are choking on foreclosure inventory, and as those homes are released into the sales system they are often neglected and tend to lower home values.  Reducing the number of new foreclosures is key to recovery for everyone.

So if you’re still unsure and have questions about buying or selling, just give me a call.  I’m ready when you are to help turn this market around!

For most people, buying a home is the largest purchase we ever make, and chances are it was largely an emotional decision.   There was something about the view, the trees, or the kitchen appliances; something spoke to us and we were ready to buy.  Over time, that emotional attachment increases as we put our personal stamp on the house and make it our home.  No wonder that the idea of losing a home through foreclosure can be emotionally shattering.

Grieving for the loss of a home and what it means to you and your family can be very upsetting.  Too often however, I see people avoid dealing with the reality of their financial situation simply because it is too painful to even contemplate.  These are the folks that ignore the letters and phone calls from their lenders and just pray that somehow it all goes away or that they win the lottery.

If any of this touches a nerve, it might be time to take a hard look at your situation.   Try to put aside the memories of holidays in your home, and ask yourself a few simple questions:

  1. Are you behind on your mortgage payments?  What about your property taxes, insurance and HOA dues?  Are you allowing maintenance items to accumulate because you can’t afford to fix things?
  2. Has your bank notified you and provided options to help?  Have you received a Notice of Default?
  3. Do you owe more than your house is currently worth?  Is the negative equity greater than 20%?
  4. Has your household income dropped in the last two years?  Are you dipping into your savings or other assets to make ends meet?  Do you doubt that your income will improve in the next 3-6 months?

If you answered “Yes” to one or more of these questions, it’s time to take action.  As difficult as it might be to face the reality of your situation, it is far less emotionally stressful to act now while you still have options and are still in control.  As soon as you miss a mortgage payment, the clock starts ticking on a countdown to foreclosure.  Wait too long to act and your options disappear.

If you live in San Diego County and are ready to discuss all the various options available, please give me a call for a no-obligation, confidential consultation.

Marti Kilby

Broker Associate, REALTOR

DRELicense # 01474222

619-846-9249

marti@kilby.com

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