Real Estate Sales Statistics


La Mesa, CA Real Estate Market Update – November 2011

 

                                                 

 

 

 

La Mesa,CA is a great place to call home!  From the quaint downtown filled with restaurants and antique shops, to the views from Mt.Helix, there are many wonderful neighborhoods with their own distinctive vibe.  But like most everywhere throughout the county, real estate values continue to slip, as noted in this real estate market update.

La Mesa, CA Single Family Home Sales – November 2011

Total number of sales                       51

            Short sales                                 9

            REO sales                                   8

Average price                                     $381,197

Average days on market                 71

Average price 2010                          $417,252

Average price YTD 2011                 $387,727

Prices for single family homes have not showed a significant decline throughout the year, which may be a sign that the market is starting to level out.

La Mesa, CA Attached Home Sales – November 2011

Total number of sales                    14

            Short sales                             3

            REO sales                                2

Average price                                  $190,807

Average days on market              51

Average price 2010                        $190,580

Average price YTD 2011               $167,587

The average price for November for attached homes is surprisingly high when compared to the preceding months.  As we enter 2012 we will have to see if this is a trend, or merely a month with more sales of higher priced units.

To learn more about the La Mesa, CA real estate market, just give me a call!  I’ve lived in the area for over 20 years and would love to show you why this is such a great place to call home.

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Overall, August was a good month and sales of detached and attached homes were up compared to August of 2010.  However, it’s the year-to-date numbers that tell the real story.

Compared to 2010, our year-to-date volume is down by 8.9%  for condos and 1.9%  for detached homes, and values have also slipped.  The median price for an attached home in August was $208,000 which is down significantly from a year ago when it was $220,500.  Detached homes have done slightly better, but the median price of $370,000 is nearly 4% down from $385,000 last year.

Some areas of course have fared better than others:

The year-to-date median price for a detached home in Cardiff  by The Sea is $892,500, up from $825,000 a year ago. Carmel Valley is also doing well with a median price of $915,500 up from $905,000.  And there has been little change in either Del Mar or La Jolla over the last year…both are holding steady at a bit over $1.3 million.

For most of the rest of the county however, home values have dropped.  We especially see this in areas that were new in 2005-2006.  Many of the homes purchased at the top of the market have now become foreclosures or short sales which tend to pull down the overall values in any neighborhood.

If you have questions about a specific area, just give me a call. 

 

 

In the world of real estate, being an effective representative for your client means staying on top of sales numbers and making sure that you have a clear picture of the market place.  So I spent some time today researching short sale numbers in San Diego County and found two interesting statistics: 

  1. There has been little change in the number of short sales that have closed escrow this year as compared to the same period last year.

                                      Detached Homes                Attached Homes

            2011                2172                                        1508

            2010                2074                                        1578

  1. The number of short sale listings that did NOT sell in the same period is much higher than I believe most people would expect. 

                                     Detached Homes                 Attached Homes

            2011                2371                                        1462

            2010                1769                                        1227

This means that roughly half of all short sale listings this year did not become successful sales transactions.  So what happened to these homes and their owners?  We can hope that some of them received permanent loan modifications or in some manner managed to reinstate their loans and keep their homes.  But it is likely that the majority became foreclosure statistics.

And why does the short sale listing failure rate seem to have increased this year over last?  Is it just because there were more attempted?  Are the bank requirements becoming more stringent?  Are there more inexperienced agents trying to handle the negotiations?

The answer is probably, “All of the above.”  But whatever the reason, don’t let your short sale become one of the failed statistics.  Make sure that you work with an experienced short sale Realtor who will pre-qualify you and your home and knowledgably guide your negotiations to a successful conclusion.

 

May got off to an interesting start with the release of several foreclosure reports that frankly, seem a bit contradictory.  There was good news.  There was bad news.  And I’m not quite sure analysts have a handle on what it all really means to the housing market.

Let’s start with the good news:  Mortgage delinquencies are down.  According to data from Lender Processing Services (LPS), delinquencies are down by 20% compared to this time last year.  At the end of March there were 6,333,040 loans nationwide that were past due or in foreclosure.  Sounds like a lot, but that is the lowest level since 2008.  The report would seem to indicate that modifications are helping as 23% of loans that were 90 days past due a year ago are current today.

Now here is where it gets confusing.  The same report showed that at the end of March foreclosure inventory was at an all time high – 2.2 million loans.  This inventory represents loans that have been referred to a foreclosure attorney but have not yet reached foreclosure sale.  The number of new foreclosure actions was 270,681 in March which is a 33% increase over the previous month.  So foreclosures are up but delinquencies are down?

Another piece of bad news was delivered in a HUD report detailing sales of FHA foreclosed homes.  HUD manages the disposition of homes that had FHA loans that were repossessed.  At the end of February there were 68,801 homes in the HUD inventory.  That is a 50% increase over the previous year.  The monthly sale of HUD homes has dropped from ahigh pointof 8,893 last June to a low of just 2,632 in January.  Thus new foreclosures are entering the market at an increased rate while sales have significantly stalled.

One factor not considered in the LPS report was the increase in the number of short sales over the last year.  In addition to loan modifications, which have not been very effective, short sales are presumably impacting the decreased delinquency rate as more homeowners are opting to sell short earlier in the delinquency cycle versus riding out the foreclosure timeline.    If you are a homeowner that owes more than your home is worth and are struggling to make your payments, the bright spot on the horizon might just be a short sale should a loan modification not provide the relief you need.

For the real estate industry overall, this jumble of numbers would seem to indicate that we’re still a long way from recovery.  With foreclosures increasing and sales decreasing, a bloated inventory of homes on the market will likely keep prices fairly stagnant in most markets.

I’m almost feeling like we can breathe again.  We’re not out of the woods, but here in San Diego, we’re headed in the right direction.  And surprisingly, the next generation of home buyers is not running screaming into the night frightened by the plague of foreclosures, but rather embraces the idea of one day owning a home.  Check the numbers.  What do you think?

According to a January 2011 Harris poll conducted on behalf of Trulia, the American Dream of home ownership is alive and well.  70% of those surveyed say that home ownership is still part of their dream, and 78% of homeowners surveyed say that their home is the best investment they ever made.  Well, those are probably folks who didn’t buy in 2004-2006.  Buyers during those years are probably the 20% who feel trapped in an underwater equity home or the 14% who are considering just walking away.  Like I said, we’re not out of the woods.

But what I found very refreshing is that 88% of 18-34 year olds aspire to be homeowners, and overall  in the west 70% of renters plan to become homeowners.  In my estimation, this group will drive the long-term recovery, and drive the next real estate bump in value. Only 10% plan on buying in the next 24 months, but they will help prime the pump.  By 2015 we could be in the midst of the next upswing.

So when to buy?  Consult with your accountants and money managers, but my bet is now….just as we turn the corner and start to head up.

In an underwhelming report issued this week by Field Asset Services, the company revealed that people would rather buy a foreclosure that has new paint, carpet and appliances than a foreclosed home that has not been spruced-up.  Really?

Field Asset Services is a Texas based company that provides cleaning and rehab services to banks and companies holding REO properties.  In an independent study during the first half of 2010, 17,252 properties were tracked across 13 states.  The homes that were not rehabilitated were on the market for an average of 222 days while those that were rehabbed sold in 69 days.

The benefits are obvious.  Not only do banks cut their expenses associated with holding a property but neighborhood values are also improved by reducing the number of vacant homes.  It is also more likely that the home will be sold for more and bought by someone who is going to live in it versus an investor looking for a flip.  Everyone wins.

So at a cost of only $4000 – $8000 for the average rehab, why aren’t more banks willing to put some lipstick on the pig?  I wish I knew the answer to that one!  I was assigned a foreclosure listing back in September.  In early December, the bank finally got around to asking me for quotes to rehab the place.  I supplied 2 quotes at roughly $4200 each…..and I’m still waiting.   They won’t let me list the condo in the MLS, and won’t let me sell it to an investor…..because they’re still trying to decide if fixing the place is worth it!  Crazy!  And people wonder why there is a glut of REOs on the market?  I say slap on the make-up and get ‘em movin’!

Once again, Santa forgot to bring me a crystal ball.  So this look into the future of the housing market is based on trends from the past year, projections from those that crunch the numbers, and my gut feelings based on life in the real estate trenches.

Foreclosures continued to be the top story in 2010 with robo-signing and questionable practices making headlines.  In 2011 so-called shadow inventory will be making news as it grows and clogs the pipeline.  This includes borrowers that are 90 days or more delinquent, homes in foreclosure, and bank-owned properties not yet on the market.  S & P estimates that it will take 41 months to clear the backlog, continuing to slow the recovery.

Short sales will increase as the government and lenders try to stem the deluge of foreclosures that add to the shadow inventory.   Right now about 35% of defaults end in a cure or short sale.  I see that number growing as banks and the government iron out the problems with HAFA (Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives), and the processing of short sales is streamlined.

Loan modifications will continue to be largely unsuccessful.   There is some hope for small improvement in the numbers if the FHA principal reduction program can be expanded.

Mortgage interest rates jumped this last month, but are gradually heading down.   Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac foresees rates staying below 5.00% throughout the year.  Let’s hope he’s right.

Home sales will increase, especially for first-time buyers, provided interest rates remain low and the economy continues to improve.  If unemployment continues to decrease and incomes increase we should see an increase in home sales over 2010 by the 2nd half of the New Year.

Home values throughout most of the country will reach the bottom by mid-year and many areas, such as San Diego County will see modest gains of 2.00 – 4.00%.  The exception continues to be the luxury home market where home prices in locations such as La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe will continue to decline.

My advice?  If you own a home and are not terribly upside-down, hang tight.  Looking to buy?  Do it now!  This is a great time to purchase your first home or pick-up an investment property.  Struggling with your payments?  Let’s explore your options, before it’s too late.  Overall, I’m cautiously optimistic.

Best wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

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