November 10, 2010

Does this seem like a good idea? Really?

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Many homeowners who are facing foreclosure are turning to attorneys to help them save their homes, especially in light of the recent revelations regarding mishandled paperwork.  With few other options available, the struggling homeowners hope that an attorney will find a flaw or legal loophole that will cause the foreclosure to be dismissed.  The problem is that most of these homeowners have no way to pay the legal fees.

But one enterprising law firm in Florida came up with a solution:  If they manage to get a foreclosure dismissed, the firm takes out a second mortgage on the property to pay the legal fees!  The Ticktin Law Group in Deerfield Beach reasoned that this was a way they could find an affordable way to represent homeowners.  Other firms are now following their example with similar second mortgage programs.

OK, call me crazy, but how does this make sense?  A homeowner that presumably owes more than the house is worth and has a first mortgage they already can’t afford, now takes on additional debt in the form a second mortgage?  The lawyers point out that they are charging low interest, around 4.0%, and insist that they would never foreclose.  So, the home is saved, for the moment, but how is this a sustainable solution? Sorry, but this defies logic and seems downright predatory.  I’ll be stunned if these poor homeowners aren’t back in foreclosure a year from now.

 

November 8, 2010

National Home Sales Drop in September – What about San Diego?

Posted by martikilby under foreclosure, real estate, Real Estate Sales Statistics, Real Estate Values | Tags: , , , |
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For the first time since June, pending home sales (number of contracts signed), dropped in September by 1.8% according to the National Association of Realtors. The report was unveiled on Friday as the Association began its annual convention in New Orleans.  This came as a surprise to many as a group of Reuter’s polled economists had recently anticipated an increase of 3%.  So why the drop?

Paul Dales, U.S. economist for Capital Economics surmised that the lower number was a result of the recent foreclosure mess; deals signed in September, might have fallen apart in October as banks pulled some foreclosures from the market and buyers got cold feet.  But that doesn’t really make sense as the September drop occurred before any of the problems with foreclosure affidavits came to light.

I think that one of the most obvious factors is the continued unemployment rate that has now been at 9.5% or higher for the past 15 months.  People who aren’t working, or fear that their employment is tenuous don’t buy houses.  Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist also pointed out that “tight credit and appraisals coming in below the negotiated price continue to constrain the market.”

So as noted in my post on November 3, Capital Economics continues to predict a bit more of a gloomy future for the housing market.  Dales says that “existing sales may well fall back,” and described housing activity as “bouncing along the bottom.”  NAR on the other hand continues to be a bit more optimistic, forecasting an increase in existing home sales in 2011 to 5.1 million, up from 4.8 million this year.  I’ll keep you posted as soon as I have the San Diego numbers for September, but I’m siding with NAR and remain cautiously optimistic about sales in America’s Finest City, especially if lenders loosen their stranglehold on the market by approving more home loans.

 

November 5, 2010

I Can’t Make My Mortgage Payments…What Should I Do?

Posted by martikilby under foreclosure, loan modification, Short Sale | Tags: , , , , , |
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First and foremost, don’t ignore the problem.   Chances are you won’t win the lottery, and your financial troubles are real.  As soon as you are 30 days late on your payment, the lender’s clock starts ticking.  There is help and you have several options.  Take a deep breath and try to look at the situation objectively.  Pick up the phone and talk to your lender.  Just remember that time is of the essence.  Acting early allows you to make the decision that is best for you.  Wait too long and your choices disappear.

Do Nothing.  It is likely the lender(s) will foreclose.  Foreclosure information will stay on your credit report for up to 7 years and may make it difficult to buy again for at least 3-5 years.

Refinance.  This is only a viable option if there is equity in your home.

Reinstatement.  This option means that you will have to pay all delinquent amounts due plus interest, attorney fees, late fees, and taxes and insurance if impounded.  If withdrawing funds from a retirement account you should consult a tax advisor.  If borrowing from friends or family make sure that all terms are in writing and that you can afford the re-payment plan. 

Loan Modification.  A loan modification re-writes your existing loan to make the monthly payments more manageable by reducing the interest rate, extending the term, and/or reducing the principal amount owed.  Your lender may participate in the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which provides incentives for lenders to modify loans.  This program and loan modifications in general have limited success.  Please read my blog post dated 10/27/2010. 

Forbearance.  In a forbearance agreement your lender arranges a repayment plan that spreads out the defaulted amounts due over an extended period of time.  It may include temporary payment reductions.  You will need to supply information that shows your financial problems are temporary and you will be able to meet the repayment requirements.

Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.   You voluntarily sign the deed back to the bank and vacate the home instead of the bank foreclosing.  Slightly better on your credit report than a foreclosure.

Bankruptcy.  Consult a bankruptcy attorney.  Filing Chapter 7 for liquidation of debt may stall foreclosure, but your lender may be allowed to resume proceedings.  Chapter 13 may halt foreclosure, but the debt of the past due amounts will be included in a 3-5 year re-payment plan. 

Short Sale.   If your home has equity, you may sell the home without lender approval.  Lacking equity, you can opt to sell the home for less than the amount owed.  This is negotiated with your lender by a qualified Real Estate Professional.  In a short sale the lender must agree to accept less than the amount of the debt owed.  This option is more favorably reported on your credit report. 

Other alternatives.  You might want to consider renting a room in your home, or getting a second job.  If you own a small business, you might qualify for an interest-free America’s Recovery Capital (ARC) loan of up to $35,000 from the Small Business Administration.  Also, if there are discrepancies in your loan documents or foreclosure paperwork, you may be able to sue your lender.  To pursue this option, consult an attorney specializing in forensic real estate work.

The most important thing you can do is not bury your head in the sand.  When a homeowner calls and tells me their home is going to auction in 5 days, there is little that can be done.  Be realistic about your financial situation.  Put it all down on paper and know exactly what you can afford today and your anticipated income over the next year.  By taking control of the situation versus letting your lender direct the action, I guarantee you will have a less stressful, healthier outcome.

Please call for a confidential, no-obligation consultation if you’d like to discuss any of these options and how they might work for  you.  To reach me quickly please call my cell phone:  619-846-9249 .  Or, leave a reply and let me know how to reach you.

 

November 3, 2010

Are We Headed for a Double-Dip in Home Prices?

Posted by martikilby under foreclosure, Interest rates, Real Estate Values, REO, Short Sale | Tags: , , , , |
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We all know that numbers and statistics can be interpreted in many different manners, depending on the desired outcome and the audience.  Case in point, within the last two weeks we have two separate reports on U.S. housing prices that range from cautiously optimistic to doom and gloom.   What’s real, and who do we believe?

Back on October 13, I happily reported in a post on this blog that according to an elite panel of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, home prices across the US saw their lowest point in the first part of the year and have been gradually trending upward.  In San Diego, the news was even more encouraging as our prices rose higher than the national average.

However, that trend over the past nine months might not hold true for the future.  On October 29th, Capital Economics, a leading international economics research firm, announced that a double-dip is already underway for both housing activity and residential prices.  Paul Dales, a U.S. economist for the firm, predicts that home prices will continue to decline over the next twelve months with a dip of over 5%.  Paul and his team add that if the economy continues to improve more quickly than analysts predict, home prices might hold steady.  On the other hand, if the economy worsens greater than predictions, prices could fall as much as 20%!

That’s huge!  Couple that with the firm’s forecast that housing demand for the next three years will remain “unusually weak”, while supply remains “unusually high”.  Right now the analysts say that there are about 1.5 million too many homes on the market given today’s demand, and that number will likely swell with additional foreclosures.  There are approximately 2.5 million homes in foreclosure and 2.4 million that are 90 days past due.  That is an addition of nearly 5 million homes that could flood the marketplace in the next year.

So what does all of this mean for San Diego real estate?  Well, I wish I had that crystal ball, but here’s my take.  To a certain degree, I believe that both reports are correct.  I certainly believe that we’ll see an increase in the supply of homes on the market due to foreclosures and short sales.  Banks can control the number of REO properties they bring to market, but I think that we’ll see a large increase in short sales as homeowners seek to avoid foreclosure. However, I don’t see a huge dip in home prices, at least here in San Diego.  I do believe that barring a total economic melt-down we’ll continue to see static prices with some modest increases in value, particularly in the $250,000 – $400,000 price range for single family homes.

Is this a good time to buy?  Absolutely!  With prices and interest rates at near record lows, what’s not to like?  Waiting to see if prices fall further is a gamble in my book as it is very likely that 6 or 9 months from now, interest rates could be as much as a full percentage point higher.

 

October 31, 2010

Improve your Odds for Short Sale Approval

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As I mentioned in my last post, there are several reasons why a lender might choose to foreclose versus approving a short sale.   But there are a few things you and your Realtor can do to improve your chance of having your sale approved. 

1.  Submit a quality offer.  Here are a few things your Realtor should look for in any offer you receive: 

  • The offered price shouldn’t be significantly less than market value.  The lender is less likely to approve the sale if he feels that his loss is greater than necessary.
  • The buyer can show more than sufficient funds to close the deal.  The larger the down payment the better.  Banks will consider a contribution to closing costs, but remember, they are looking for the highest possible net return on the sale.
  • The buyer agrees to put his/her earnest money deposit into escrow before short sale approval.  This shows the lender that the buyer is committed and less likely to walk away from the deal.  If the sale is not approved, the deposit is of course returned to the buyer.
  • The buyer should plan on paying for any needed repairs, including termite.  Don’t submit an offer that asks for repairs or a home warranty.
  • The offer must not be contingent on the sale of the buyer’s current home.  Buyer should be flexible about when they need to move out of their current residence.
  • The offer should be well written and easy to understand.  (More on that subject in a future post), 

2.  Submit all required documents. 

  • Make sure your Realtor has confirmed with your lender regarding every required document.  They should all be submitted at one time to help prevent certain items from getting lost in the lenders system.
  • If additional (or yes, duplicate) documents are requested, submit them as quickly as possible and have your Realtor or negotiator confirm receipt. 

3.  Remember the squeaky wheel…. 

  • Whether it is your Realtor or a professional negotiator who is representing your short sale to the bank, they need to be in regular communication with the lender, inquiring about progress on your file.  1 phone call a week is not sufficient.  The negotiator on the bank’s side needs to understand that you are very serious about gaining their approval and selling your home.
  • Ask for updates from your Realtor and make sure that there is follow-up with the lender 2-3 times per week.  You should know at all times where you are on the foreclosure timeline.  Make sure you immediately provide your Realtor with any letters you receive from your lender or any legal notices.

There are many important details in a short sale that are very different from a standard equity sale.  When listing your home, make sure you select a Realtor who is experienced with short sales.  Saving your home from foreclosure is way too important a task to trust to an inexperienced agent.

 

October 29, 2010

Why Banks May Choose Foreclosure over a Short Sale

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It has been estimated that the average cost to foreclose on a home is about $75,000 including costs to local government for lost tax revenue and services, costs to the homeowner, and the devaluation to neighbor’s properties. Of this amount, the actual cost to the bank averages about $50,000 – $60,000, including attorney’s fees, property maintenance and REO resale fees.  Considering that the hard costs of a short sale are considerably less, and the impact on local government, neighborhoods and individuals is far less destructive, it’s difficult to understand why banks seem to be dragging their feet when it comes to approving short sales.

According to a recent article in the NY Times, many lenders are concerned about fraud. It is known that some homeowners, who actually can afford their mortgage payments, falsely portray their financial picture in order to cut their losses on a property and move on.  Other homeowners may try to sell to a relative who would then sell the home back to them, a practice that is illegal.  A recent industry report estimates that short sale fraud occurs in a least 2 percent of sales and costs banks about $300 million annually.

But fear of fraud and the associated costs is a relatively minor consideration.  The more important reason shouldn’t be too surprising:  There are financial incentives in many cases to choose foreclosure over a short sale.  For instance, institutions that service loans can reap high fees from foreclosures and lenders can often collect on private mortgage insurance that protects against foreclosure losses.  Neither the same high fees nor insurance is collected when a home sells short.  Another little known fact:  A 2009 regulatory change to a federal accounting law allows banks to foreclose on a home, but not take the loss until the home sells.  By contrast, in the case of a short sale, the bank must take the loss immediately.

So obviously, the bank’s decision has nothing to do with what is best for the national or local economy, or the individual homeowner.  Check back for my next blog where I’ll discuss what you can do to improve your chances of having your short sale approved.

 

October 27, 2010

Why HAMP Loan Modifications are Failing

Posted by martikilby under lenders, loan modification, mortgage, Short Sale | Tags: , , , , |
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According to numbers released on Monday by the Treasury Department, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) continues to be an ineffective tool for homeowners.  Loan servicers completed just 28,000 modifications during September, down 16% from August.

The goal of the program was to help 3-4 million borrowers keep their homes by modifying their existing loan to an affordable level.  To date, 1,369,414 modifications have been initiated through the program, but there are only 466,708 active permanent modifications.  Through September, 699,924 trial modifications and 21,190 permanent modifications have been canceled.  That’s a failure rate of over 50%, certainly not a good track record for any program.

So why has this program failed so miserably?  According to Edward Pinto, a prominent housing consultant who recently testified before the House Oversight Committee, HAMP requirements are so confusing that servicers have difficulty complying.  In his words, “There are only two words to describe HAMP’s guidelines:  Numbing complexity.”

So from the banks perspective, the program is difficult to implement and lacks financial incentives, but what do the people most affected think? I asked several clients who tried to get loan modifications about their experience and they cited many problems with the program: 

  • The interaction with lenders was very frustrating.  They were never able to actually speak with anyone who was making a decision about their loan and could only speak with a customer service representative who had limited information and was often from an outsourced international location.
  • They were required to fax reams of documentation, over and over as it apparently was lost and never made it into their file.
  • The time period for review was way too long.  Several clients were in forbearance agreements during the process, couldn’t afford to continue to make the payments and simply gave up.
  • Even after modification, the payments were still too high.  For many borrowers going from an interest only loan to a fixed rate, their payments were actually higher after the modification.
  • The issue of value is not addressed.  Even with modification, paying on negative equity is a difficult pill for many borrowers to swallow.

My prediction?  There will be fewer borrowers even attempting a loan modification and an increase in short sales as more underwater homeowners seek a viable solution.

 

October 25, 2010

Qualifying for a Mortgage….Some DNA, Please

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Remember back in 2005 when anyone with a pulse could get a home loan?  Well obviously, that didn’t work very well, but the qualification paranoia we see today may be equally destructive to the housing market.

I spoke with a client the other day who was grumbling about not being able to get a line of credit.  Mind you, this gentleman used to run a bank, owns 20 rental properties, his own home is valued at $1.5 million, and he owes less than $200,000 on all 21 properties combined.  And let’s add to that the $1 million plus cash in the bank.  He applied to an investment firm (which shall remain nameless) for a $200,000  line of credit in case he finds a great real estate investment opportunity.   After 3 months of supplying documentation several times over, (seems it kept getting lost), his application was denied because they couldn’t understand that he had moved a small amount of money out of an IRA for tax reasons!

So this is a man with exceptional assets, and he can’t get a loan…what about the rest of the population?  According to an article in SmartMoney it’s getting more and more difficult to qualify for a mortgage and even the smallest negative detail can either cost you an approval or thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.  A score of 720 is the ticket these days for a conventional loan with the best rates….that is up 40 points since the housing collapse.  Ed Mierzwinski of the U.S, Public Interest Research Group says that “Credit scores are a blunt tool being abused by creditors as if they were a sharp instrument.”

Ouch.  We feel the pain.  As a Realtor in this market with so many opportunities for buyers, it is extremely frustrating to see how difficult it is for home buyers to get a loan.  Granted, the credit requirements for an FHA loan aren’t quite as stringent, but the increased level of documentation is staggering.  A recent buyer of mine left me a message that was one long scream….she said she just had to vent after being asked by her FHA lender to supply a paper trail for the money her 90 year-old mother in Eastern Europe sent to her as a gift.  She sighed and said she was just waiting for the call requesting a blood sample.

So what can you do to improve your chances of getting a loan in this market?  

  • If you’re self-employed, plan ahead.  Banks will primarily look at your last two years tax returns, so your qualifying income is based on your tax returns.  Amounts on your returns should match financial statements and bank statements.
  • If you have any skeletons in the closet, deal with them before applying.  This might include things such as an unresolved judgment or child support payment issues.
  • Be prepared to explain ANY credit inquiries for the last two years.
  • Try to avoid any late payments for a full year prior to applying.
  • Maintain balances on revolving credit below 30% of your limit.
  • Don’t apply for new credit, and don’t close accounts.  Use zero balance credit cards now and then, but pay them off right away.
  • Don’t transfer money from retirement accounts.

And finally, stay calm and realize that over the next year as the number of people with less than perfect credit increases and the market continues to stabilize, it is expected that the banks will gradually release their stranglehold on qualification standards.  But be prepared, that call for the DNA test just might be next on the list.

 

October 21, 2010

Mortgage Interest Rates Up, Volume Down. Not Good.

Posted by martikilby under foreclosure, Interest rates, lenders, mortgage, Short Sale | Tags: , , , , |
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For the first time in over 6 weeks interest rates for 15 and 30-year fixed mortgages rose…not much mind you, but they did increase.  15 year rates rose from an average of 3.62 to 3.74 percent, and the 30 year rate increased from an average of 4.21 to 4.34 percent.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association we also saw a sharp drop in the number of applications submitted for the week ending October 15th, down by 10.5 percent from the previous week.  Refinance applications were down 11.2 percent and applications for home purchases were down 6.7 percent.

Now I’m no economics wiz, but even I can tell you that this is not good.  The MBA attributed the drop in applications to the slightly higher rates, but more importantly to public apprehension and confusion surrounding the mismanagement of foreclosure paper work by some banks and servicers.  So at a time when we have an increased number of foreclosures and short sales hitting the market, we have potential buyers of distressed properties pushing back, fearful that there could be issues in the transaction that would give them less than clear title.  And, oh yeah, let’s throw in a rate increase.

So once again, it appears that the banks are doing nothing to get us out of the mess they created….but of course, it’s not all bad for most of them.  Wells Fargo turned a profit of $3.35 billion for Q3, up from $3.24 billion a year ago.  I’m sure that warms the hearts of everyone who lost their home last quarter.

 

October 19, 2010

Finally…a Solution to the Housing Mess?

Posted by martikilby under foreclosure, lenders, Real Estate Values, REO, Short Sale | Tags: , , , , , , , , |
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Numbers were released today for the month of September that show that foreclosures and inventories of bank-owned properties are on the rise in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, and California.  The report was issued by ForeclosureRadar, a company that tracks every foreclosure in the five western states and provides auction updates.  Although several bank and loan servicers have announced that they are suspending foreclosures while investigating internal procedures, ForeclosureRadar analysts have yet to see any impact of this suspension on the numbers.

So the report is reminding us that nothing is getting any better, and in fact it’s getting worse.  Last month in California, the number of foreclosed properties that sold declined by 15.6% while inventories of bank-owned homes increased by 5.3%. And according to ForeclosureRadar’s CEO, Sean O’Toole, “…the reality is that far more homeowners are behind on their mortgage payments than are even in foreclosure.”  To me, this spells a further increase in the number of short sales and foreclosures, with no end in sight.

However, in the middle of this disheartening news, Mr. O’Toole voiced the only logical response to the real estate crisis that I’ve heard all year. “The clear problem in the housing market today is not foreclosures, but negative equity; and as long as the focus remains on the symptom rather than the disease we will see little progress towards real solutions and this crisis will drag on for years to come.”

Finally!  Someone gets it!  Negative equity is the real problem that needs to be addressed.  As I mentioned in my earlier post about the FHA principal reduction program, reducing the principal owed to be more in line with current values is the best and quickest way to curtail the growing number of strategic defaults.  Most people who have bought a home, want to keep their home…..but it has to make financial sense, especially in today’s struggling economy.  Reducing the principal amount owed not only makes the mortgage payment more affordable, it provides an incentive to stay and pay.

So from my perspective, until the banks and investors decide that taking a loss through principal reduction is preferable to taking a loss through foreclosure, our housing market will continue to disintegrate.  How many more foreclosures and short sales will it take before the banks are ready to listen?

 

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