June 7, 2011

Home Values are Up, No Down, No Up….

Posted by martikilby under Buying versus Renting, foreclosure, Real Estate Values, Short Sale, The U.S. Economy | Tags: , , , , |
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Everyday I wake up, turn on my computer and read all the real estate news.  But pretty soon I’m scratching my head, wondering whether or not anyone really has a clue about what’s going on.  One story says values have double-dipped at a new low, another says they’re on the rise.  Some “experts” insist that reducing unemployment will drive the real estate recovery, while others have the statistics to “prove” that a stronger real estate market will be what heals the national economy.  No wonder the real estate market is stagnant – everyone is paralyzed by uncertainty!

As noted previously, I have no crystal ball.  Nor do I have a doctorate in economics.  However, I do know one thing that will help heal both the real estate market and the overall economy:   Would-be buyers and defaulting owners – take action now!  

If you are thinking about buying a property, quit thinking and start doing!  This is a fabulous buyer’s market and both prices and interest rates are at incredible lows.  If you’re worried that you won’t get the absolute lowest price because values might continue to drop, you’re probably wrong.  Most experts believe that we’ll see some slight ups and downs in value over the next 2 years, but it will be more of a bumpy road versus a roller coaster dive.   If you wait another year to buy, you’ll lose 12 months of mortgage interest deduction, and the enjoyment of owning your own home or investment property.

On the other hand, if you’re unable to continue to make your mortgage payments it’s definitely time to take action.  You probably won’t win the lottery, so call your bank and try to get a loan modification.  If that doesn’t work, consider a short sale.  Avoiding a foreclosure through short sale is generally not only better for the seller, but it will help the real estate market and economy.  Banks are choking on foreclosure inventory, and as those homes are released into the sales system they are often neglected and tend to lower home values.  Reducing the number of new foreclosures is key to recovery for everyone.

So if you’re still unsure and have questions about buying or selling, just give me a call.  I’m ready when you are to help turn this market around!

 

May 9, 2011

New Foreclosure Stats: What do They Really Mean?

Posted by martikilby under foreclosure, loan modification, Mortgage delinquency, Real Estate Sales Statistics, Real Estate Values, Short Sale | Tags: , , , , , , |
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May got off to an interesting start with the release of several foreclosure reports that frankly, seem a bit contradictory.  There was good news.  There was bad news.  And I’m not quite sure analysts have a handle on what it all really means to the housing market.

Let’s start with the good news:  Mortgage delinquencies are down.  According to data from Lender Processing Services (LPS), delinquencies are down by 20% compared to this time last year.  At the end of March there were 6,333,040 loans nationwide that were past due or in foreclosure.  Sounds like a lot, but that is the lowest level since 2008.  The report would seem to indicate that modifications are helping as 23% of loans that were 90 days past due a year ago are current today.

Now here is where it gets confusing.  The same report showed that at the end of March foreclosure inventory was at an all time high – 2.2 million loans.  This inventory represents loans that have been referred to a foreclosure attorney but have not yet reached foreclosure sale.  The number of new foreclosure actions was 270,681 in March which is a 33% increase over the previous month.  So foreclosures are up but delinquencies are down?

Another piece of bad news was delivered in a HUD report detailing sales of FHA foreclosed homes.  HUD manages the disposition of homes that had FHA loans that were repossessed.  At the end of February there were 68,801 homes in the HUD inventory.  That is a 50% increase over the previous year.  The monthly sale of HUD homes has dropped from ahigh pointof 8,893 last June to a low of just 2,632 in January.  Thus new foreclosures are entering the market at an increased rate while sales have significantly stalled.

One factor not considered in the LPS report was the increase in the number of short sales over the last year.  In addition to loan modifications, which have not been very effective, short sales are presumably impacting the decreased delinquency rate as more homeowners are opting to sell short earlier in the delinquency cycle versus riding out the foreclosure timeline.    If you are a homeowner that owes more than your home is worth and are struggling to make your payments, the bright spot on the horizon might just be a short sale should a loan modification not provide the relief you need.

For the real estate industry overall, this jumble of numbers would seem to indicate that we’re still a long way from recovery.  With foreclosures increasing and sales decreasing, a bloated inventory of homes on the market will likely keep prices fairly stagnant in most markets.

 

April 27, 2011

Short Sales Hit a Record High

Posted by martikilby under foreclosure, Real Estate Values, Short Sale | Tags: , , , , , , |
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A survey released on Monday shows that nationally, nearly half of all home sales in March involved distressed properties; either foreclosed homes or short sales.  This is the second highest level seen in the past 12 months.   And while this might not seem like good news, the statistics actually provide a glimmer of hope. 

The Housing Pulse Tracking Survey reported that short sales rose from 17.0% of total sales in February to 19.6% in March, and at the same time REO sales fell from 14.9% to 12.0%.  this is an all-time high for short sales.

So why is this a good thing?   Short sales, though not as speedy as we would like, are resolved much more quickly than foreclosures.  An REO can sit empty on the market for months, often falling into disrepair.  REOs are used as comparables by appraisers and thus drag down neighborhood property values.  Smaller numbers of REOs would be a positive sign for improved home values in the months ahead.

Additionally, from the point of view of an individual, a short sale is usually preferable in terms of both short and long-term impact.    A few of the advantages include the fact that a short sale does not have near the negative impact on a borrower’s credit score as a foreclosure;  there is no set time limit that disallows a borrower from buying again, and a short sale is not reported on a credit report for 7 years, as is a foreclosure.

If you have any questions about short sales, or any other real estate questions, please don’t hesitate to give me a call at 619-846-9249.

 

April 25, 2011

Who’s Most Likely to Choose Strategic Default?

Posted by martikilby under Credit score, Fannie Mae, foreclosure, Strategic Default | Tags: , , , , , |
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Over the past few years as home values have taken a nose dive, we’ve witnessed a new group of borrowers in the default arena – enter the strategic defaulter.  A strategic default occurs when a borrower who is financially able to make their monthly mortgage payment, chooses to walk away from their property because they owe more than the home is currently worth.  The rationale is that it doesn’t make financial sense to continue to pay for negative equity, waiting and hoping that the home’s value will increase and they will re-coup their lost equity.

To banks that are already struggling to cope with the thousands of borrowers who are legitimately unable to make their mortgage payments, this group represents a growing challenge.  According to studies by the Chicago Booth School of Business, strategic defaults in September 2010 represented 35% of all defaults, up from 26% in March 2009.  Last year the problem became so large that Fannie Mae announced that it would seek stringent penalties against borrowers who are able to pay, but choose to walk away.

Hoping to stem the tide of strategic default, banks are looking for ways to identify those borrowers most likely to walk away from their mortgage obligations.  The problem however, is that to date there has been no reliable way to identify the potential strategic defaulter.  Intervention is impossible if you don’t know who you’re looking for.

FICO Research Labs may have developed the tool banks are lacking.  The credit assessment company announced that it has developed a method that analyzes consumer spending and payment habits and allows lenders to identify borrowers who are 100 times more likely to default than others.  

So what is the profile of the strategic defaulter?  They are actually quite savvy managers of their credit having higher FICO scores, lower balances on revolving debt, less retail credit usage, and fewer instances of exceeding credit limits than the general population.  FICO claims the company’s new analytics can provide loan servicers with a method of reaching two-thirds of these would-be strategic defaulters, and according to Dr. Andrew Jennings, head of FICO Labs, “The ability to spot likely strategic defaulters before delinquency enables servicers to intervene early.”

But then what?  It is one thing to identify borrowers who might choose strategic default, but, what intervention can banks offer that will actually deter would-be defaulters? If lenders follow Fannie Mae’s example and simply threaten legal action to recoup outstanding mortgage debts, I doubt that will be much of a deterrent or solve any of the real problems.

The issue comes back to a point I’ve often made in this blog:  I don’t believe we are going to see a significant reduction in defaults, both strategic and involuntary until lenders are ready to consider meaningful principal reductions for borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth.   If Savvy Bob the Homeowner is considering default because he owes $80,000 more than the home is worth, do you think he might consider staying in his home if his principal balance was reduced by $60,000?  Throw-in a lower interest rate and I’m pretty sure you’d have a deal.  Considering the bottom line expenses for banks to foreclose, costs for carrying an REO, lost revenue, and a lower net sales price, principal reduction should start to look pretty good.

So I’m all for identifying those who are likely to choose to walk away, but before banks rush to hit them over the head with penalties, l hope they’ll put some thought into resolving the equity issues that are driving strategic default and offer borrowers a meaningful alternative.

 

March 29, 2011

Good News for San Diego’s Housing Market

Posted by martikilby under Real Estate Values, San Diego Home Values | Tags: , , , |
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Back in November, and then again in December, I predicted that San Diego had seen the bottom and we would continue to see small gains in home values in 2011.  Over the first quarter however, there has been a lot of talk and statistics about home prices falling nationwide and some folks seemed anxious to prove me wrong. 

Well this morning, I can happily say I was right.  The just-released Standard and Poors/Case-Schiller Home Price Index for January reveals a 1.00% decrease in home values over the previous month…….except for two cities, Washington, D.C. and San Diego!  The index tracks values in 20 cities and overall, values were down 3.10% over January 2010 – only Washington, D.C., and San Diego showed a year-to-year gain.

So, to all of you who are waiting to buy in San Diego, fearful that values will continue to drop, pay attention.  Now is the time to buy….unless of course you want to pay 2.00-4.00% more at a higher interest rate a year from now.  Just a thought.

 

February 3, 2011

Whew! Home Prices Stabilize in San Diego

Posted by martikilby under Home Ownership, Real Estate Values | Tags: , , , |
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Home prices across the country have taken a roller coaster ride over the past few years with far more hair-raising dips than inclines.  According to a Fiserv, Inc. report, the ups and down may not be totally over, but the financial services company predicts that by the end of 2011 75% of U.S. metro areas will see stable prices.

The good news for San Diego is that we are only one of three metro areas that had prices stabilize in recent months.  San Francisco and Washington, D.C. are the other two.  Still suffering are hard-hit areas including Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas where prices are not expected to smooth out until late 2012.

This is not to say that we won’t see some price reductions in certain neighborhoods, but overall the downward slide in value is over for most San Diego homeowners.  Foreclosures, unemployment, and restricted access to credit will continue to be the three negative factors influencing our market, but increased demand based on low prices and low interest rates seems to be balancing our market favorably.

So is this a good time to buy?  As I’ve said before…..absolutely!  Prices are already increasing in many areas, but if you’re curious about where you can get the most bang for your buck in San Diego county, give me a call.

 

January 26, 2011

Still Cheaper to Buy than Rent in San Diego

Posted by martikilby under Buying versus Renting, Home Ownership, Real Estate Values | Tags: , , , , |
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In a survey of the 50 largest U.S. cities, Trulia found that it is still more affordable to buy than rent, even in San Diego.  But does this survey tell the whole story?

According to the guidelines the company used, a price-to-rent ratio of 1-15 means that it is more affordable to buy than rent, a ratio of 16 – 20 indicates it is more expensive, but still might make financial sense, and a ratio of 21+ means that it is definitely much more expensive to buy than rent.  San Diego scored a 15, and only 4 cities were over 21, including San Francisco, Seattle, New York, and a surprise, Kansas City, MO.

That all sounds well and good, but it should be pointed out that the survey compared the cost of buying versus renting 2 bedroom apartments, condos and townhomes, not single family residences.  The company arrived at the numbers by comparing the median list price of homes offered on their website for 2 bedroom units to the median rent for a comparable home.  Also, I’m not sure that looking at list price is an accurate indicator as most homes do not sell at list price.

The other problem I have with the survey is that it doesn’t take into account the level of demand for apartments or townhomes versus single family homes.  In New York or San Francisco, there is a much higher demand for condo living than there is here in San Diego.  I believe a more accurate survey for our market would be the comparison of buying versus renting a 3 bedroom 2 bath single family home analyzing sales price and actual rent paid.

The survey results did however indicate an interesting shift in the demographics of who is buying and renting.  According to Tara-Nicholle Nelson, consumer educator for Trulia, “Lifelong renters are seizing the opportunity to become homeowners while affordability is high. At the same time, a growing number of long-time homeowners are finding themselves tenants – some by choice and others by necessity.”

In the end, I don’t really believe that renting or buying a home is just about the numbers, and who is under the roof with you is much more important than the cost.

 

December 10, 2010

Staggering Stats: Trillions in Equity Lost

Posted by martikilby under Home Ownership, Real Estate Sales Statistics, Real Estate Values | Tags: , , , , |
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This year alone U.S. homes are projected to lose $1.7 trillion in value.  Since the market peaked in 2006 there has been over $9 trillion in lost equity, according to Zillow.  But let’s put that in perspective.

Zillow cites a report by the Congressional Research Service, which says that from 2001 to the end of September of this year, the war in Iraq has cost the U.S. $750.8 billion.  This means that since 2006, the dollar value of home equity lost by U.S. homeowners is greater than the cost of 12 Iraq wars!

Now some might argue that home equity in 2006 wasn’t “real” money, and that inflated prices only created the illusion of equity.  Well, most of the country based many financial decisions on that illusion and by the end of the 3rd quarter 2010; more than 23.2% of homeowners owe more than their house is worth.

Looking forward into 2011, Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, doesn’t see the market settling into a natural equilibrium of supply and demand any time soon.  “Unfortunately, with foreclosures near an all time high in late 2010, and negative equity persisting, it does not appear that the first part of 2011 will bring much relief,” he said.

One bright spot for San Diego emerged however.  Out of the 129 market areas tracked by Zillow, only one-quarter showed any increase in value in 2010, led by Boston with a spike in residential home values of $10.8 billion and San Diego metro with an increase of $10.2 billion.

The message for San Diego homeowners:  Hang-on if you can and you’re not too far underwater.  For would-be buyers:  Don’t wait!  Prices and interest rates are on the rise.

 

December 2, 2010

Reducing the MID is a Stupid Idea

Posted by martikilby under Home Ownership, mortgage, Real Estate Values, Tax Deduction | Tags: , , , , , |
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We all agree that reducing the national debt and annual deficit is important to the long-term stability and health of our nation’s economy.  But why, in a time when the housing market is so fragile, would anyone think that reducing one of the principal benefits of home ownership is a good idea?

Yesterday, the Deficit Reduction Commission issued its recommendations which included cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Defense spending, and the Mortgage Interest Deduction, among other programs.  The Mortgage Interest Deduction has been around for over 80 years and is one of the principal benefits of owning a home.  This provision allows homeowners to take the annual interest paid on their mortgage as an income tax deduction. Take away or significantly lower the deduction and the benefits of home ownership are reduced to choosing your own paint colors.   Values are not appreciating; no one is building equity, so why buy?

Coincidentally the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book was also released yesterday showing that the depressed housing market continues to be one of the biggest stumbling blocks to economic recovery.  So if I understand correctly, the Feds are saying that our economy won’t show significant improvement until the housing market recovers and at the same time the Deficit Commission is proposing that we make home ownership less appealing.   The logic eludes me.

I believe that the impact of this proposal will be a significant blow to the struggling housing market, whether or not it is ever enacted.   The public in general is still nervous that home values will continue to decline, so many would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy.  The news reporting of this proposal, and even the remote possibility that the deduction will disappear gives them one more reason to stall, further delaying recovery.

Although I don’t always agree with their politics, the National Association of Realtors got this one right.  This is a stupid idea and I hope that you’ll join me in asking your Representative to defend the Mortgage Interest Deduction.

 

November 3, 2010

Are We Headed for a Double-Dip in Home Prices?

Posted by martikilby under foreclosure, Interest rates, Real Estate Values, REO, Short Sale | Tags: , , , , |
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We all know that numbers and statistics can be interpreted in many different manners, depending on the desired outcome and the audience.  Case in point, within the last two weeks we have two separate reports on U.S. housing prices that range from cautiously optimistic to doom and gloom.   What’s real, and who do we believe?

Back on October 13, I happily reported in a post on this blog that according to an elite panel of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, home prices across the US saw their lowest point in the first part of the year and have been gradually trending upward.  In San Diego, the news was even more encouraging as our prices rose higher than the national average.

However, that trend over the past nine months might not hold true for the future.  On October 29th, Capital Economics, a leading international economics research firm, announced that a double-dip is already underway for both housing activity and residential prices.  Paul Dales, a U.S. economist for the firm, predicts that home prices will continue to decline over the next twelve months with a dip of over 5%.  Paul and his team add that if the economy continues to improve more quickly than analysts predict, home prices might hold steady.  On the other hand, if the economy worsens greater than predictions, prices could fall as much as 20%!

That’s huge!  Couple that with the firm’s forecast that housing demand for the next three years will remain “unusually weak”, while supply remains “unusually high”.  Right now the analysts say that there are about 1.5 million too many homes on the market given today’s demand, and that number will likely swell with additional foreclosures.  There are approximately 2.5 million homes in foreclosure and 2.4 million that are 90 days past due.  That is an addition of nearly 5 million homes that could flood the marketplace in the next year.

So what does all of this mean for San Diego real estate?  Well, I wish I had that crystal ball, but here’s my take.  To a certain degree, I believe that both reports are correct.  I certainly believe that we’ll see an increase in the supply of homes on the market due to foreclosures and short sales.  Banks can control the number of REO properties they bring to market, but I think that we’ll see a large increase in short sales as homeowners seek to avoid foreclosure. However, I don’t see a huge dip in home prices, at least here in San Diego.  I do believe that barring a total economic melt-down we’ll continue to see static prices with some modest increases in value, particularly in the $250,000 – $400,000 price range for single family homes.

Is this a good time to buy?  Absolutely!  With prices and interest rates at near record lows, what’s not to like?  Waiting to see if prices fall further is a gamble in my book as it is very likely that 6 or 9 months from now, interest rates could be as much as a full percentage point higher.

 

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